Recycled PET: polyester staple fiber period spot rises, can the recycling market go up

Recently, cotton, viscose staple fiber and polyester staple fiber have stepped into the upward channel. The prices of most textile raw materials have risen, but the recycling market continues to be weak. Today, polyester staple fiber futures were listed, and the spot price of the futures rose. The resurgence market is waiting for the rising sentiment to heat up, and merchants remain cautious and wait-and-see. Zhuo Chuang believes that there are opportunities for the recycling market to rise in October, but there are differences between varieties. The trend of primary polyester is the key.

Polyester staple fiber rises, the continuous cycle remains to be seen.

During the year, the cash flow level of polyester staple fiber has always been better than other polyester products. The recent price increase is due to the following reasons: First, traders and downstream intensive replenishment have reduced the inventory of polyester staple fiber enterprises to low levels. Secondly, India's yarn production capacity accounts for 22% of the world, and some terminal orders are transferred to China. In addition, under the expectation of the coldest winter, domestic demand has improved, and the weaving market started to rise on average in October. Thirdly, in the context of futures listings, trade and other participants have increased, and the market is dominated by a positive attitude, and there are also certain hype factors. In addition, staple fiber products such as cotton, polyester, and viscose have all increased, and the prices of some yarns have risen rapidly, and the cotton spinning market has formed an overall strong trend.

　　 Zhuo Chuang expects that the short-term polyester staple fiber market will mainly rise. The new production capacity of PTA is about to be put into operation. In the fourth quarter of ethylene glycol, several units are planned to be put into operation. The cost side will be a drag on polyester staple fiber. The autumn and winter public health incidents have repeated, the overseas situation is still severe, and the continuity of terminal textile orders is difficult to guarantee. Therefore, polyester staple fiber is expected to continue to improve in October, but the possibility of price correction at the end of the year is still high.

Spreads widen, and the regeneration market has rising demand

Under the reverse substitution cycle, the price difference between polyester staple fiber and ordinary fiber is between 200-500 yuan/ton most of the time. Since 2020, the average price difference between the two is 333 yuan/ton. At present, the price difference between the two is relatively high. Today, the price difference between the two is 500 yuan/ton. Therefore, the recycled general fiber market has certain rising demands, but the current average inventory of the general fiber market is more than half a month, still at a relatively high level. In addition, there is still no price advantage for recycled products, and the recycling industry still lacks confidence in price increases. In the future, it seems that the price gap with polyester staple fiber continues to widen, and recycled general fiber may rise slightly. Regarding recycled hollow space, the production and sales of chemical fiber plants have improved since mid-to-late August, mainly based on the support of home textile demand. However, new production capacity of over 200,000 tons of primary hollow fiber has been released one after another, and the market attitude of hollow staple fiber is relatively cautious under the expectation of increasing supply.

　　Autumn and winter wool bottle recycling volume is reduced, and the supply of recycled PET is difficult to increase significantly. At present, the stocks of some bottle flake factories are acceptable, and most of them are kept at low prices and are reluctant to sell. Staple fiber products are collectively strong, and some market hype factors are added. If the price of recycled chemical fiber picks up, the recycled PET market has room for follow-up. Zhuo Chuang predicts that the recycled PET market may show a steady, medium-to-strong trend in October, and the trend of virgin polyester is the key. In the medium and long term, we still need to be aware of the risks of lower prices of polyester raw materials and shrinking demand. It is recommended that businesses pay close attention to changes in supply and demand and operate with caution.

This article is taken from Zhuo Chuang Information

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